The fullness of gas storage facilities. And what is behind it...

In the past weeks, the question of the fullness of the gas storage facilities of EU member states has often resurfaced – especially due to the last-minute reconnection of the Nord Stream-1 pipeline, and the threat of its yet uncertain future. In this current, increasingly strained gas supply situation, it is essential for the survival of the coming winter that there is enough gas in storage.

As the requirement for weathering this upcoming winter, the European Commission has determined an 80% fullness guide value, which should be reached by member states by November 1st. Meanwhile Germany has determined a higher – 95% – fullness goal for itself.

Although all member states are in the more or less continuous process of filling its storage facilities,

at the moment, there are serious differences between the storage fullness levels among the member states.

Additionally, the fullness of storage facilities does not offer entirely reliable information on whether a country should be confident in its ability to withstand winter temperatures. E.g., if a country has high storage fullness levels, yet a low storage capacity. Meanwhile, a country with higher storage capacity, but a lower fullness percentage, may be able to handle winter better than the former. It is necessary then to find indicators that are able to better determine the chances of each country during the winter.

Let us see the necessary basic data.

Table 1: The storage capacity of EU member states (in TWh*, the unit of energy used for gas, in a descending order)

Cyprus, Finland, Greece, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta and Slovenia are not listed here (and shall not be listed anywhere below), as the source, agsi.gie.eu page does not report on their storage levels. Although Estonia has considerable storage capacity (34,2 Twh), agsi.gie.eu does not report on its storage levels. Additionally, Ireland is not listed, as it has zero storage capacity.

Table 2: The population of EU member states (million, in descending order)

Table 3: The consumption of EU member states (in TWh*, the unit of energy used for gas, in a descending order)

Table 4: The actual fullness levels of gas storage facilities of EU member states (Expressed in percentage, according to data from July 22nd, 2022, in descending order)

Let us see the indicators that can be created based on the above basic data!

Table 5: Energy consumption to storage capacity in EU member states (expressed in percentage, in descending order)

The higher the numerical value, the better the storage capacity can fulfill the needs of the specific country, which in turn gives the country in question better chances for weathering the upcoming winter.

Table 6: Storage capacity per person of EU member states (expressed in kWh, the unit of energy used for stored gas, in descending order)

The higher the numerical value, the better the chances of weathering the upcoming winter for the country’s consumers.

When it comes to determining the survivability of winter for the populace, Table 6 is useful, as it shows the amount of energy per person in ideal circumstances (100% storage fullness). But beware, this includes all infrastructural, industrial and service-based consumption as well, projected onto 1 person. In other words, it cannot be interpreted in a way that suggests that each person receives and can manage for themselves the amount of stored gas as shown in the table below. No, these values show each person’s personal AND non-personal available amount of energy.

According to the tables, taking into consideration its populace and storage capacity,

Hungary is in a relatively fortunate position.

A far more fortunate position than Europe’s leading powers, such as Italy, Germany, France.

Table 7: Storage capacity per person of EU member states - corrected in accordance with current fullness data (expressed in kWh, the unit of energy used for stored gas)

The data in this table shows how much energy is actually available per person in each country, corrected based on data on current gas storage fullness.

Until the deadline of the 1st of November, this is the truly deciding indicator of how well each country is able to take advantage of the chances shown by the above indicators. In other words, how well they are able to manage the dangers presented by the indicators, and how confidently they can welcome the coming winter.

Table 7: Storage capacity per person of EU member states - corrected in accordance with current fullness data (expressed in kWh, the unit of energy used for stored gas, in descending order)

The surprising moral of the above table is that smaller countries, including Hungary, are ranking quite high on the list. However, this relatively high “ranking” is “disturbed” by rented storage, to be detailed later.

On the other hand, Sweden is near the bottom of the list when it comes to every indicator, and as such, it will heavily depend on the EU’s July 20th solidarity proposal among its member states, the “Save Gas for a Safe Winter” plan.

The key question is whether member states will accept the European Commission’s most relevant proposal, which is to reduce gas consumption from the 1st of August by 15%.

If the answer is yes, this would mean that the amount of available energy per person would rise.

Finally, a brief glance at the current Hungarian storage fullness levels in comparison to previous years (based on data collected by mfor.hu):

The fullness levels of the current year, in the past nearly 7 months, show the lowest values in the past 5 years. This already concerning data is further darkened by the fact that Hungary has sold 500 million m³ gas to Serbia, however, this amount is stored in Hungary, as mentioned above. This means that out of the gas stored for the remainder of the year, 500 million m³ is actually unavailable to Hungary.

The bad news is that there is no sign (yet) of any dynamic supplement to make up for this amount. Although according to Table 7, Hungary is ranked relatively high (“minus” the storage of the gas amount sold to Serbia), however

It would be wise to make use of the time until winter to better fill gas storage facilities,

If only so that Hungary can offer aid to countries less fortunate, in solidarity. For this, Hungary now “only” has to review export prohibitions...

*1 TWh = 1.000 GWh = 1.000.000 MWh = 1.000.000.000 kWh"

Sources:

Gas Infrastructure Europe - AGSI+ (gie.eu)

KYOS - European Gas Storage - Home

Gáztárolók (mfgt.hu)

HEXUM Földgáz Zrt.| (gaztarolo.hu)

Újra érkezik Magyarországra orosz gáz, de van miért izgulni - mfor.hu)

Germany steps up gas emergency preparations as Nord Stream resumes operation | Clean Energy Wire

500 millió köbméter földgázt vásárol Szerbia Magyarországtól | szmo.hu (szeretlekmagyarorszag.hu)